High sale yard prices are driving confidence among graziers that they can pay high prices now and profit from future sales.
Australian beef production is forecast to be a record A$16.3 billion in 2022-23, as high rainfall across much of the eastern states has led to greater pasture availability and widespread restocking.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) Outlook 2022 conference in early March heard the national cattle herd is at a very low 23 million head.
High sale yard prices are driving confidence among graziers that they can pay high prices now and profit from future sales.
The nationally averaged yards price is 789c/kg, among the highest in the world, and it is expected to fall into the low 700s over the next year.
Slaughter volumes have been low over the past year and beef production is steady at about 2m tonnes annually in both 2021-22 and 2022-23.
Of that half will be exported and half sold domestically.
World prices are expected to remain strong during the outlook period and the value of exports is estimated at $9b in both this year and next.
ABARE forecast a return to normal processing levels as the pandemic runs its course, borders reopen, government policies take effect and supply chain disruptions become resolved.
Tariffs are falling for exports into countries like Korea, China, Indonesia and the United Kingdom.
Other producers are also seeing those benefits, such as the United States into Japan and Korea.
Live cattle exports fell 16% to 650,000 head in 2021-22 as limited availability and high prices made live importing too expensive.
Australian sheepmeat production is forecast to reach a record $5b in 2021-22 and the value of exports to $4.4b.
Exports to the United States received a huge boost, when between July and November 2021 the trade volume was up 45% on the previous corresponding period.
Lamb sale yard prices are just under 900c/kg and sheep 648c/kg.
Lamb slaughter is 21m head in 2021-22 and sheep slaughter is 6m head.
