Sunday, July 3, 2022

Milk output slow during NZ winter months

Milk production during the month of June was 7% down on the same time last season.  Official data released by DCANZ show that just 10.4 million kgs milksolids (kgMS) was produced in June.  In June the majority of dairy cows in New Zealand are not in milk.  A small number of cows are milked during the winter months primarily to meet fresh milk demand in the domestic market.  Although June marks the official start to the 2013/14 NZ milk production season it is not an indicator of performance of the season ahead.  NZX Agrifax analyst Susan Kilsby says “June’s milk production figure is insignificant due to the very low volumes typically produced in that month and does not give any indication of likely production levels for the new season”.  June production volumes account for less than 1% of total annual milk production in New Zealand.   “June’s milk production figure is insignificant due to the very low volumes typically produced in that month and does not give any indication of likely production levels for the new season”. Susan Kilsby Agrifax Dairy Analyst Fonterra data indicates that production volumes remained subdued during the month of July.  Last week Fonterra announced that during the months of June and July they collected 10.4% less milk than during the same months in 2012.  Milk collections were down to a greater degree in the North Island than in the South Island.  This is to be expected as milk production in the South Island is typically growing quicker than it is in the North Island as more land is converted into dairying.  Also the South Island did not get impacted by the autumn 2012 drought to the extent that the North Island did.

Milk flows for the month of August are expected to pick up.  Cows were in good condition at mating last season which is expected to result in a tight calving spread, that is the time between the first cows calving within a herd and the last cows calving.  Mean calving dates may well be ahead of last season which is likely to inflate milk production in the early season.  NZX Agrifax analyst Susan Kilsby is picking that August production could be up on last season due to cows calving earlier and pastures typically being in good condition.  But she cautions that it will be unlikely that we will see significant growth in milk supplies during the peak output months of October and November.  "Weather conditions were very kind to NZ dairy farmers last spring, so it is unlikely that milk flows will be much ahead of last season during this period, in fact it is quite likely output will trail last season volumes during this period" says Kilsby.  

 

 

Click here to download latest DCANZ milk production data

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