Rain continued to evade Northland and northern Auckland since the New Year, leading the Government to officially declare Northland in a medium-scale adverse drought event. Farmers have been particularly active in reducing onfarm stock numbers in a bid to neutralise some of the impact but significant rain will be needed before the region fully recovers. The impact of the dry has been reflected in the AgriHQ Pasture Growth Index (PGI) which measures the potential for pasture growth based on sunlight, rain and temperature. Both Northland and Auckland were tracking 27-30% behind their five-year average levels in January.
Conditions in the central North Island, particularly towards the eastern side of the country, are slowly turning against farmers as well. Bay of Plenty received little rain of significance in January, causing the PGI value there to sit 20% behind normal. PGI data for Waikato was marginally above average in January though that was not quite enough to counter the slow growth in December.
With Northland now officially in a state of drought, many in the East Coast and Hawke’s Bay are awaiting similar declarations for their respective regions. Rain tallies were among the lowest levels recorded in January, making water supply to stock a major issue. This dry has been compounded by regular, gusty winds drawing further moisture out of soils. As an example of how severe conditions are, the East Coast recorded its lowest January PGI value since records began in 1995 while Hawke’s Bay was lower only once over the same period.
Western areas are in stark contrast. Regular rain and moderate temperatures were conducive to grass growth in King Country, Taranaki and Manawatu with few farms under any form of pressure as a result.
As a whole, the South Island has kept a solid pace to its grass growth though it’s a tale of two-halves when it comes to actual weather conditions.
The northern half of the island has dried out since December, especially through North Canterbury and Marlborough, though this has been in-line with the normal trend for this point in the year. Consecutive years of drought have left farmers in these areas risk-averse and they are, therefore, carrying less stock than usual so any short-term deterioration will be unlikely to have a massive impact on these areas.
Much of the lower half has endured a wetter and cooler summer than usual, to the point where it has stunted pasture growth to an extent in Southland. South Canterbury and northern Otago fell into the sweet-spot between these conditions in January, with South Canterbury’s average PGI value the firmest on normal levels in the South Island.
