July to early August is typically the coldest time of the year but average daily temperatures are expected to take a path slightly higher than normal. It will, however, still be the lowest point of the year for temperatures. By mid-August, air ground temperatures can be expected to start rising.
Any polar blasts this winter are likely to bring their chilling winds into a slightly warmer-than-normal Tasman Sea, producing bursts of heavy and thundery showers (with hail) to western areas.
What could set this winter apart from the normal is likely to be the continuation of the June pattern, with lows from the Tasman that take several days to make their way across the county. We are still vulnerable to cold southerly blasts.
With slightly more frequent areas of low pressure in the Tasman Sea, the rainfall over the next few weeks will likely be above normal for the North Island and north and west of the South Island.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has now been in a neutral state (neither La Nina nor El Nino) for over 12 months. While there have been subtle variations in the indices during this time, they do remain within a neutral state.