Phil Taylor praised the MfE emissions report for recognising the role forestry can play in reducing the amount of hydrocarbons used, alongside carbon sequestration.
Foresters have welcomed a recognition by the Ministry for the Environment (MfE) about the role trees will play in meeting New Zealand’s emissions targets, over and above what the Climate Change Commission has also allowed for.
In its emissions reduction report released recentlty, the MfE noted at current ETS prices for carbon it was likely forestry may overdeliver on the sequestration needed to meet carbon reduction targets.
Ministry officials stated that in the medium-term, forestry may yet become a low-cost buffer if other sectors of the economy underdeliver.
The report laid out for the first time how NZ may deal with carbon emissions other than agriculture, which is covered under its own He Waka Eke Noa timelines across the primary industry.
Moving beyond agriculture’s obligations, the emissions report covered how emissions from transport, NZ’s other major emitter alongside livestock, would be managed.
Carbon reducing ideas there included rent-to-own e-bikes, cheaper bus fares, congestion charges and a goal to have 30% of cars electric by 2030.
MfE estimates are that for the first projection period from 2022-2025 forests could remove a mid-range figure of 24 million tonnes of CO2, compared to the commission’s demonstration pathway of 26m tonnes.
Come 2031-2035, mid-range estimates by MfE are that forestry will remove 71m tonnes, close to the commission’s estimate of 69m tonnes.
The mid-range estimates are based on average carbon prices of $35 a unit and about 35,000ha a year being put into new tree plantings, close to what the commission said was required between now and 2035 in exotic plantings. At present carbon is trading at $63 a unit.
The likelihood of the forestry sector exceeding required plantings has also been reinforced by a recent survey of forest owners’ intentions for forestation.
While only projecting forward to 2023, this report indicated between 2021 and 2023 an average of 40,000ha a year of new forest would be planted for both production and permanent carbon forest plantings.
Projections beyond 2024 for the split between production and carbon planting were not provided on grounds of uncertainty, depending upon land availability.
Forest Owners Association Phil Taylor says he was heartened to see MfE’s emissions report has also acknowledged the role forestry will be playing in another area of climate change mitigation, by providing an alternative fuel source to hydrocarbons.
The report suggests some industry-specific initiatives, including supporting biofuels in the existing vehicle fleet.
Estimates are that Fonterra alone would require three to four million tonnes a year of biomass to replace coal across processing plants. If the supply were to be largely from wood this would equate to 150,000-200,000ha of forest.
BioEnergy Association of NZ executive officer Brian Cox says work already done by his association shows 60% of coal could be replaced by existing biomass sources, comprising largely of plantation forestry and large on-farm woodlots.
“This shows they recognise forestry is not just a one show pony and plays an equally important role in actual emissions reduction, not just sequestration,” Taylor said.
While the primary sector is still formulating its pricing strategy for emissions under He Waka Eke Noa, Taylor says it is inevitable that the ETS may become linked at some level.
Details of the primary sector’s pricing scheme are due for release and farmer consultation later this year.
“The sooner we all get some clarity on this the better. At present it risks causing people to speculate (on carbon values),” he said.
