{"id":30969,"date":"2018-03-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-20T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.farmersweekly.co.nz\/tough-year-but-grain-outlook-good\/"},"modified":"2018-03-21T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2018-03-20T11:00:00","slug":"tough-year-but-grain-outlook-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.farmersweekly.co.nz\/news\/tough-year-but-grain-outlook-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Tough year but grain outlook good"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 3<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

While he had parked up his harvest machinery on another season done, it wasn\u2019t one to go in the record records.<\/p>\n

What will be on the records, right up and down the country, is the tough and challenging past 12 months endured by all in the arable sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost growers have toughed it out starting right after last harvest,\u201d Leadley said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was too wet and difficult to get crops in the ground and many were planted in below optimum conditions, establishment was late and then we got the heat period of 48 days with no rain in late spring and into summer.\u201d<\/p>\n

Those challenges played out in the harvest.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the whole, right across the board, all crop yields are back on recent years.<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously, there\u2019s been some exceptional crops in pocket areas but generally it\u2019s not been what we would have liked.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere just wasn\u2019t the root establishment in the later planted crops then in the heat they raced ahead \u2013 while the crops hung on it\u2019s shown out in the yields.\u201d<\/p>\n

Growers in Southland and Otago have seen some particularly poor yields as they contended with drought then wet conditions at harvest.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Crops have been quite variable in the North Island.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Similarly to the South Island, crops that were planted in autumn or winter have done better than those planted in spring.<\/p>\n

On a positive note, quality had been good.<\/p>\n

\u201cIronically there\u2019s been few screenings and all reports we are hearing are of some pretty good quality grain coming through.\u201d<\/p>\n

While feed demand is looking positive there isn\u2019t a lot moving yet given buyers and sellers are yet to get on the same page.<\/p>\n

Leadley hopes the good news in the dairy payout will flow on to the arable sector.<\/p>\n

The cattle disease Mycoplasma bovis also had potential for arable farmers to step up and supply plenty of feed, depending on what the decision is in the next few weeks around eradication and future cattle movements.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere could be increased demand for cut and carry feed, grain and grain based silages, as opposed to grazing, depending on what happens.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an unknown basket but certainly arable farmers are well placed to supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

There has already been some good demand for straw in the more weather-challenged parts of the North Island.<\/p>\n

With the slight upward turn on pricing continuing to hold, particularly for grain, the future is looking a little brighter for cropping farmers.<\/p>\n

Milling wheats have traditionally lagged behind in recent years but are starting to list now, tapped by international pricing and flour mills starting to show some early interest.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s all looking a little more positive as we plan and plant for next season but certainly after this season that started tough and finished just as tough, we are looking forward to brighter times ahead.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe early indicators are for stability ahead and that\u2019s key to planning now as we confirm plantings for next season.\u201d<\/p>\n

Spot pricing is higher than it was at this time last year when Canterbury feed wheat was selling for $311\/tonne and feed barley for $307\/t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Latest prices are $376\/t for feed wheat and $377\/t for feed barely.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Better prices and a decent outlook for the dairy sector should result in reasonably strong planting of cereals, at the expense of proprietary grasses where indications were for a reduction in area planted this year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Leadley said while there will be spring options available for vegetable seed, brassicas and some cereals, the bulk of the planning and planting is happening now and paddocks for spring crops, despite being purely speculative at this stage, had to be prepared in advance to meet specialist crop specifications and to fit farming rotations.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in international markets, improving weather forecasts for the United States southern plains have brought prices back.<\/p>\n

The nearest dated May contract for hard red winter wheat settled at NZ$238\/t on the CME market last week, compared to NZ$252\/t the previous week.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the May contract for corn eased $4\/t in trading, settling at NZ$203\/t.<\/p>\n

Australian values have remained fairly unchanged this month as the market balanced up both its need for domestic use and how much will be available for export.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The past 12 months have been a mixed bag for arable farmers looking forward to better times ahead, Federated Farmers grains chairman Brian Leadley says.\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":30970,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_FSMCFIC_featured_image_caption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_nocaption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_hide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t