Spanning spring 2023 and then over summer the traditionally windier and drier set-up of El Niño has brought drought or extremely dry conditions to parts of the country for over half a year. Rainfall has been hit and miss during this event and that’s brought pockets of dry but not the widespread problems we’ve seen in previous times.
Each El Niño is unique, like our fingerprints – on paper they look similar but up close there are differences.
In a small, mountainous, island nation like ours anything can happen as our weather is heavily influenced by the Southern Ocean and Australia regions. However one thing usually happens – those inland and eastern parts of the country often dry out. As we go through April central New Zealand is dry (upper South Island and lower North Island) as is a large part of Northland/Far North.
Autumn doesn’t always bring the rain relief you need – like El Niño, it too is often westerly driven and this also keeps many eastern and northern parts of both main islands in somewhat of a rain shadow.
However, autumn usually brings more chaos – and if you’re in need of rain then chaos is better than settled. Over the coming weeks more lows and cold fronts should cross NZ. Sometimes these can be disappointing for those most in need – for example the top of both islands, such as Marlborough and Northland.
But the longer nights and shorter days also tend to help encourage lingering showers and more low pressure in the mix – despite a lot of high pressure still being expected. The longer nights in April also lead to heavy dews which, with dead or dry grass, can encourage facial eczema in warmer areas. According to Awanui Veterinary, the spore counts have been steady and currently match levels very similar to the previous three years.
So far this autumn isn’t proving to be too cold. Sure, there have been some cold days and cold starts – but there’s also been a noticeable lack of frosts around the country.
It’s only early in the season but I’d be expecting to see a few more frosts than we have now, particularly in the South Island. The fading El Niño and approaching peak of autumn are most likely to blame. As I wrote about last week, if our weather comes sideways (that is, more westerlies or easterlies) it tends to be slightly milder for us overall.
NZ is a tricky country to forecast at the best of times. I wish I had an easy answer for those who need rain. All we can do is focus on the positives – El Niño is heading out the door, it’s a little milder, and some limited wet weather is on the horizon.
Upcoming Highlights:
• High pressure kicks off this week and drifts east
• Northerly winds behind the high
• Low pressure and a cold front from the west late week
