Wednesday, July 6, 2022

USDA revises upwards Nonfat Dry Milk price forecast

Prices for dairy commodities are moving in opposing directions in the US market.  In their latest  Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook the USDA have lowered their butter price expectations for the remainder of the year, as high stock levels are putting downwards pressure on the market. Meanwhile prices for Nonfat Dry Milk have been revised upwards, reflecting strong demand from international markets. Corn prices for the 2012/13 year are unchanged from July; however, the price range is narrowed to $6.90-$7.00 per bushel. For the 2013/14 year, corn prices are raised to $4.50-$5.30 per bushel. The production forecast for the 2013 corn crop is lowered for August based on slightly lower expected yield. The soybean meal price forecast for 2013/14 is increased to $305-$345 per ton from July. Soybean meal production is lowered for August, and the higher price keeps the production in domestic use at the expense of exports, which were lowered. According to the most recent Agricultural Prices report, the preliminary July alfalfa price was $209 per ton, lower than June but 6 percent above the July 2012 price. The 2013 milk production forecast is raised slightly in August from July to 202.1 billion pounds. The 2013 forecast is raised due to changes in second-quarter reported production. The 2014 milk production forecast remains unchanged from the July forecast at 204.5 billion pounds Current-year fat basis imports are raised in August to 4.2 billion pounds, largely on the basis of year-to-date cheese imports, and are expected to decline to 4.1 billion pounds in 2014, unchanged from the July forecast. This year’s skim-solids basis imports were lowered to 5.4 based on a year-to-date decline in casein imports. Imports are forecast at 5.4 billion pounds for 2014, unchanged from July’s forecast. Current-year fat basis exports are increased to 10.3 billion pounds for 2013, based on stron

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