Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Online tool for milk price analysis

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A new, free tool will make it easier for dairy farmers to see the factors that influence the farmgate milk price. The AgriHQ Farmgate Milk Price Calculator has been developed by NZX Agri and Massey University with funds from Callaghan Innovation. “Farmers will be better informed and better equipped to ask questions about milk price predictions.”   Susan Kilsby Agrifax  
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The Farmgate Milk Price Calculator is designed to help farmers better understand the relationship between GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) prices and their milksolids payout. 

The free-to-access calculator means there's no more waiting to understand how the latest GDT auction price affects New Zealand farmers. 

Users can toggle between the seasonal and snapshot calculators to build a better view of what's around the corner.

NZX Agrifax dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said the calculator is easy to use and provides instant data.

“When Fonterra puts out its milk price, you can see where it is in relation to global prices,” she said.

“For instance, their prediction now is $5.30 but if you were to look at the last GDT prices the calculator gives a much lower number. You can see that world prices have to go up considerably just to get back to that $5.30.

“So if they see a lift in commodity prices starting to happen, it can give them confidence that the prediction will be achieved. It puts everything in perspective.

“Farmers will be better informed and better equipped to ask questions about milk price predictions.”

Kilsby said the calculator worked by bringing together the various factors that influenced the farmgate milk price.

“What we’ve essentially done is taken apart Fonterra’s Milk Price Manual, simplified it, and put it in a format that’s easy for farmers to use.”

The calculator produces two milk prices – a spot price based solely on the latest GDT prices, and the seasonal figure that considers dairy commodity prices across the season. It also includes costs and the exchange rate.

“You can log on and then go and change any of the figures yourself and see the impact of what that might be,” Kilsby said.

“For example, you could have a play with the exchange rate, maybe take it down to US65c to see what effect that would have on the farmgate milk price.

“You can adjust every input.”

Global dairy market online tool

NZX Agrifax and Massey University have produced another online tool for global dairy market participants. 

The New Zealand Milk Production Predictor will help them better understand future levels of NZ milk production.

The tool predicts NZ milk production over the next three months by using advanced modelling and input from the Agrifax team.

Its forecasts are based on a large number of factors including climate, pasture growth, and cow numbers.

The AgriHQ Farmgate Milk Production Predictor is available free to use in October and at an introductory price of $199 a month for an annual subscription. From November 1 it will cost $249 a month.

AgriHQ Academy

AgriHQ Academy provides courses on how to get the best from the Dairy Data Tools. Courses on the subject include:

  • Derivatives – futures and options
  • Using and understanding the farmgate milk price calculators, and
  • What propels NZ milk production?

Take the course and then test yourself at academy.agrihq.co.nz

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