If you thought the previous week was busy politically, last week was frenetic.
We have a realigned cabinet, a new political poll that certainly changes things, and the Auckland floods.
The recent political poll was fascinating and, I believe, a wakeup call for National.
As I wrote last week, with prime minister Jacinda Ardern standing down, the next election isn’t guaranteed for National and the polls support that.
From languishing below National in the polls, Labour is now in the lead, to the surprise of many.
A jump of 5% from one poll to the next is unheard of but Labour has done it, with National now in second place.
Of more concern to the National Party machine will be the fact that 52.9% of the electorate trusts Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.
The figure for National leader Christopher Luxon is just 36.9%.
And while Hipkins had a 46% approval rating, Luxon was languishing at 34%.
There’s a lot of water to go under the bridge before October’s election, but this far out the playing field is, in my view, tilted in Labour’s favour.
With the new cabinet lineup there are positions I support and those I don’t.
For a start, I’m pleased Damien O’Connor has kept his cabinet ranking and agriculture and trade portfolios.
I would have liked to have seen him getting a higher position. Having the engine room of the economy at 12 doesn’t impress me.
Having said that, I’m aware that O’Connor doesn’t care about rankings as long as he retains his primary sector portfolios.
I was impressed Kieran McAnulty has local government, which I’ll come back to, and I’m pleased he’s picked up rural communities.
He understands life in the provinces and will be a much-needed ally to O’Connor in the cabinet.
Likewise, having Jo Luxon as parliamentary under-secretary to the minister of agriculture is positive.
She also understands the rigours of life in the provinces and will be an asset in that role.
So, I’m happy with the rural team. It is stronger than it was and that strength will be much needed with the headwinds we’re going to be facing.
McAnulty as minister of local government will be fascinating. I know the first of the three acts over Three Waters has been passed amid much chicanery from the previous minister, Nanaia Mahuta.
Conversely, McAnulty is both mainstream and smart. My belief is that he well understands the electoral time bomb Three Waters holds and will want change. Whether he will be able to convince his cabinet colleagues is another question.
What is interesting is that a large part of the opposition to Three Waters came from the Auckland Council, which claimed it didn’t need it. Last weeks flooding might suggest otherwise.
My belief or maybe forlorn hope is that we will see change. I don’t like the confiscation of local assets, the four mega-agencies selected largely along tribal boundaries, and co-governance.
What will be fascinating will be the reaction of the Māori caucus – whether they’ll take one for the team and progress sensibly or dig a tribal trench and blow the next election.
Onto other portfolios, I support Dr Ayesha Verrall in health. She has shown a steady pair of hands as has Michael Wood, who is now minister for Auckland. While I understand the electoral necessity of pandering to the Queen City, I live in hope that any initiatives don’t come at the expense of the provinces.
Jan Tinetti and Kiri Allen have also been impressive in their roles to date.
I remain unimpressed with Stuart Nash returning to a previous role as minister of police. The fact that the police were quoted as “loving having him as minister” tells me he is a puppet for the cause as tended to be proved over his actions on gun licensing.
Willie Jackson surprised me by retaining his role as minister of broadcasting and media. While I do support a merger between RNZ and TVNZ while selling off TV2, I don’t believe he’s sold it to the public.
Last week’s flooding in the north of the North Island certainly provided some political insights. For a start I’m pleased I don’t live in Auckland under Mayor Wayne Brown’s tutelage. His outburst about “having to deal with media drongos” didn’t say much about him either. He gave me the impression he was totally out of his depth.
Fortunately McAnulty stepped up and, with Hipkins, got the show back on the road.
We’ve all seen extreme weather conditions throughout the planet but getting them here was sobering and will be increasingly a fact of life going forward. The reality is that, as a country, we can achieve little.
Mind you, Greenpeace blamed the Auckland floods on intensive dairying, which doesn’t happen in New Zealand. Maybe someone should tell them NZ dairy emissions are irrelevant in a global context.
