Earlier this month it was reported that speculation about cooling relations between China and New Zealand seems overstated, based on speeches from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and China’s ambassador to NZ at the recent China Business Summit held in Auckland.
Ardern spoke about the economic and cultural ties between China and NZ, describing the relationship as mature, complex and important.
She also stressed the importance of dialogue, diplomacy and adherence to the international rule-based order.
While the newly appointed Chinese ambassador to NZ Wang Xiaolong, who spoke after Ardern and Trade Minister Damien O’Connor, praised the progress the two nations have made over the last five decades.
“Over those 50 years, China-NZ cooperation has created many firsts, leading the relations between China and Western developed countries,” Wang said.
“These rich assets have laid a solid foundation for the further development of bilateral relations.”
But the softer tone between the two countries hasn’t meant our other trade partners are now keeping a watchful eye on how NZ-China relations are going as tensions grow between the US and China over Taiwan, with UK Farmers Weekly recently reporting that supermarket shelves are unlikely to be flooded with NZ beef and lamb in the immediate aftermath of this year’s free trade deal, but any changes to NZ’s dealings with China could see the country divert more beef, lamb and dairy exports to the UK, analysts there say.
There’s also a general consensus that ongoing US-China tensions increases the risk of trade being disrupted between China and other Western countries.
It’s reported that should China ban NZ lamb imports for any reason, economic modelling by the AHDB and Harper Adams University suggests NZ lamb exports to the UK could increase by 29,000 tonnes (69%).
It’s also estimated that an equivalent ban on beef by China could see NZ exports to the UK increase by 7000t (830%).
“If the China market was closed to New Zealand, then … [NZ] would look to divert that beef to other countries,” AHDB senior analyst Amandeep Kaur Purewal said.
For lamb, the modelling predicts NZ will increase its exports by diverting some of its existing exports , coupled with a small increase in production.
For dairy, AHDB predicts that the potential effect on the cheese and butter trade is much more subdued.
Meanwhile, NZ’s Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and agriculture sector representatives recently shot down a news report suggesting China had closed its borders to NZ and Australian products due to concerns about foot-and-mouth disease (FMD).
“New Zealand exports to China are continuing as normal,” an MPI spokesperson told BusinessDesk.
With the world on high alert for FMD, the UK – and other trade partners – will undoubtedly also be keeping a watchful eye on FMD developments both here and in Asia.
The highly contagious viral disease, which affects livestock such as cattle, sheep and goats, would cost the economy billions of dollars if it were to breach NZ’s border.
