New Zealand needs to act now to boost food and fuel resilience for future global catastrophes, researchers say.
As they outline in a study published in the international journal Risk Analysis, building capacity for biofuel production would not only safeguard NZ’s food supply in the event of a global disaster, it would also make the nation’s fuel supply more resilient to lesser shocks.
However, planning and investment are needed well ahead of any crisis to secure those benefits.
The study estimated the agricultural land area and biofuel volumes needed to feed the population in the absence of trade caused by such catastrophes as nuclear winter, massive volcanic eruptions, or extreme pandemics.
The researchers detail how it would be feasible for NZ to make enough biodiesel from locally grown canola to power agricultural machinery should fuel imports cease – and how without such investment, food could soon run short.
Lead author Dr Matt Boyd of Adapt Research said the research puts a focus on the value of investing now to get ahead of risks that are rising globally.
“There is simply not enough diesel fuel held locally for NZ to ride out a protracted catastrophe, or even a protracted fuel shortage.
“We need to act now to secure local food production against global catastrophes,” he said.
Currently the canola grown in places like Canterbury is used only for producing oil for food purposes.
Co-author Professor Nick Wilson of the University of Otago, Wellington, said the study considers the option of expanding canola cultivation to allow production of enough biodiesel to run the farm machinery that then produces enough food to feed all New Zealanders after a catastrophe.
The study considered the example foods of wheat, potatoes and dairy, with wheat production requiring the least amount of biofuel to produce, harvest and transport to refineries.
“In the long-term, agricultural machinery is likely to all become electrified – but we need assured capability to run diesel-powered farm machinery for quite a number of years.
“Our findings also offer a roadmap for countries worldwide to evaluate their agricultural resilience and take decisive steps toward self-sufficiency.”
The potential to also enhance fuel supply resilience is highlighted by NZ’s complete dependence on fuel imports, with just 21 days’ worth of diesel in the country at any time.
The biofuels option could form part of wider plans for food and energy resilience and needs to be assessed against alternatives in that context.
