Agcarm chief executive Mark Ross says supplies of all crop treatments are likely to remain tight as long as China limits power availability to chemical producers.
Farmers are being advised to consider alternative cropping options as prospects for an easing of agri-chem shortages dim, thanks to Chinese energy restrictions and the global shipping crisis rolling into the new year.
Agcarm chief executive Mark Ross says he has been advised by chemical suppliers that 2021 was merely a “dress rehearsal” for 2022 in terms of supply problems.
This has been exacerbated by quarantine issues developing in mainland China, with authorities clamping down on ship crew isolation requirements.
Chinese factories producing agri-chemical products in the Jiangsu and Guangdong districts are facing the greatest impact from power shortages, brought on in part by the Government’s efforts to try and reduce carbon emissions from coal-fired power stations.
“They have found there are a lot of power plants that are not up to scratch,” Ross said.
China’s efforts to reduce its coal reliance, which generates almost 60% of its electricity, tie in with its aims to become carbon-neutral by 2060, and this requires controlling electricity supply until more sustainable options are developed.
Ross says limitations on the number of days Chinese chemical companies and materials suppliers can manufacture is expected.
Glyphosate manufacture is concentrated in the Jiangsu, Guangdong and Sichuan regions and are among those most affected.
Over the spring planting period a global glyphosate shortage arose thanks in part to existing transport and logistic problems brought on by covid.
Strong global commodity prices have also driven up the price, as farmers rush to get more crops in the ground to capitalise on returns.
“The recent Chinese requirement for seagoing ship crews to quarantine for a seven weeks at the end of their rotation was only likely to make delivery issues worse in coming months,” he said.
The country’s increasingly strict covid-zero policies even affects vessels that have refreshed their crews elsewhere, requiring them to wait two weeks before being allowed into Chinese ports.
Bloomberg has reported China now having the highest proportion globally of congested ports as of late November.
The restrictions require mainland crews to quarantine for three weeks before their return to China, another two weeks at the port of arrival and two more weeks in their province before reuniting with family.
Regulations to achieve covid-zero are also expected to ramp up even further in coming weeks as the country gears up for the winter Olympics.
Ross said glyphosate in particular was one of the most well-used treatments experiencing issues. He was urging farmers to start considering “plan B” options, should supplies remain tight heading into autumn planting rotations.
“We saw a big surge in demand, possibly with people stocking up on it,” he said.
He advised farmers to talk to their merchants about what alternatives may be available. They could look at integrated pest management plans that incorporate crop rotation, local pest resistant or tolerant varieties and varying planting or harvesting dates to dodge pest infestations where possible.
Ploughing was a non-chemical option in some cases for pest control, but Ross pointed to the irony that this released more carbon to the atmosphere, and increased fuel costs for farmers.
One rural supply agent confirmed significant cost increases being borne by farmers included glyphosate increasing from $7000 for 1000 litres to $17,000.
He said the problem was exacerbated by NZ’s relatively small-scale, pastoral-focused market, with little incentive for manufacturers to do limited production runs of specialist treatments like grass grub pesticide.
“In general, most fungicides are available; they may not be your first choice brand there, but there are still alternatives,” he said.
Foundation for Arable Research general manager for business operations Ivan Lawrie said farmers were increasingly aware of the hikes in costs experienced for treatments and fertilisers, but were now beginning to be concerned about treatment shortages.
But he cautioned there was the risk of encouraging resistance by reducing treatment dose rates to make limited chemicals go further.
“And when it comes to disease and weed control, not all chemicals used are necessarily interchangeable,” Lawrie said.
