Saturday, December 9, 2023

Dairy markets mark time

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Prices on the Global Dairy Trade platform are marking time till the spring peak for milk production and international buyers can get a handle on whole milk powder availability.
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The first fortnightly October auction saw a 0.2% rise in the price index, which contained a 0.2% fall in WMP prices.

Cheddar prices rose 3.4%, lactose by 1.8%, buttermilk powder by 6.7% and skim milk powder 2.7% to finish at a healthy US$2674/tonne.

With only a month till the milk peak the dairy market is posed to react to the implications for world trade in dairy commodities, for which NZ supplies the some of the largest tonnages.

To the end of September Fonterra had collected 2% more milk this season than last but warned changeable weather is delaying pasture growth.

The Sudden Stratospheric Warming over Antarctica is generating strong, cold, southerly winds and regular snow on high country.

Peak milk could be delayed and possibly lower than previous years.

ASB senior rural economist Nathan Penny said global dairy prices remain relatively resilient in the wake of the increasingly shambolic geopolitical backdrop and slowing global growth.

“New Zealand spring production will be key in determining the direction for global dairy prices.

“Winter has been relatively kind to farmers with production to date running ahead of this time last season. 

“On the other hand, production last spring was very strong so a kind winter may still not be enough for production to match last year’s levels.”

Rabobank dairy analyst Emma Higgins said global dairy market fundamentals continue to remain well balanced with modest growth in milk production along with steady import demand across a number of key markets.

Westpac analyst Imre Speizer said Chinese consumer activity has held up well as the government has so far successfully engineered a rebalancing of the economy towards domestic consumption.

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