AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad says the data reflects winter scanning rates and generally settled weather for lambing, but it also shows productivity gains from within flocks.
A record lambing percentage this spring has provided a small counter for a continued decline in ewe numbers.
This spring 0.6%, or 129,000, more lambs were tailed than the previous year, taking this year’s crop to 22.7 million, well down on the 10-year average of 24.6m lambs born.
Beef +Lamb NZ’s Economic Service survey estimates breeding ewe numbers are back 0.5% on last year.
Meanwhile, unsatisfied global demand for red meat continues to underpin the growth in the value of New Zealand exports, with a Meat Industry Association (MIA) analysis revealing growth of 27% in October compared to a year earlier, reaching $693 million for the month.
The B+LNZ lamb crop report estimates the number available for processing will increase 1% from 18.3m last year to 18.5m, although average carcase weights may be slightly down on 2020-21 due to variable lamb growth rates from cool, wet weather.
The survey has found the higher lamb drop is despite a 0.5% decline in breeding ewe numbers to 16.5m.
The largest decrease in ewes was in Northland, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty, falling 2.5%, while there was also a slight decline in the South Island, apart from Southland where there was an increase of 2.6% or 65,000.
The number of lambs tailed in the North Island increased 1.4%, 146,000, to 10.6m head, due to mostly favourable conditions, apart from the East Coast.
The South Island lamb crop is effectively unchanged, just down 17,000, or 0.1%, at an estimated 12.1m.
The number of lambs bred from ewe hoggets rose 3.7% to 957,000, equivalent to 4.2% of total lambs born and was driven to higher mating numbers in the North Island.
The average total lambing percentage was 131.9%, 1.2% higher than spring 2020 and equivalent to the record achieved in 2018 compared to an 126% average for the previous 10 years.
The number of adult sheep forecast to be processed in 2021-22 is likely to be back 9.5% at 3.5m, due to farmers seeking to maintain or recover breeding flocks.
AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad says the data reflects winter scanning rates and generally settled weather for lambing, but it also shows productivity gains from within flocks.
Croad says the growth of forestry, especially on the North Island’s east coast, does not appear to be reflected in these numbers, but could do so next year.
“We have heard that farmers, especially on the east coast, are culling their ewes harder, with a view that a lot of capital ewes will be on the market before next winter from farms that have been sold to forestry,” Croad said.
The MIA says sheepmeat exports were a standout performer in October, with the value increasing 25% to $309m, driven by China, up 25% to $131m; the US up 54% to $46m; and the Netherlands, up 94% to $29m.
The average Free on Board (FOB) value for sheepmeat exports for the quarter was a record $12.52/kg, the first time the average monthly value has been above $12/kg.
MIA chief executive Sirma Karapeeva says prices were driven by a mixture of supply constraints, as Australia rebuilt its flock, and strong demand.
She says UK sheepmeat exports to the EU have been affected by Brexit.
“Most of the United Kingdom’s sheepmeat exports – around 90% – normally go to the 27 European Union countries, but its exports to that market are down 24% so far this year,” Karapeeva said.
The value of beef exports for the month was up 28% to $231m and co-products 30% high at $153m.
China’s total imports of NZ red meat was up 34% to $262m; the US by 47% to $138m; Japan by 29% to $31m; and the Netherlands by 76% to $30m.
