By Alexandria Winning-Browne, NZX analyst
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, outlining a lift in total grain production. Total grain production forecasts have lifted 0.32% to a projected 2,738.39 million mt of grain produced. This figure does sit lower than total grain production in the 2021-22 season, however, down 2.046% YoY. Compared to the season prior (2020-21), total projected production for the 2022-23 season is up 0.5%.
Global wheat production estimates have been revised up in March, with an increase of 0.66% from February’s projection to 788.94m mt. This figure was driven by increased projections from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, India and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s production has been revised up 2.4m mt to 16.4m mt, the largest expected production season since 2011-12. This projection also bumps Australia’s production to a record 39m mt, 22.2% higher than the 2020-21 season and 8.5% higher than last season’s results.
Corn production forecasts have been revised down in March, down 0.33% to 1,147.52m mt. This forecast would have global soybean production down 5.63% from the previous season’s figures, however up 1.6% from the 2020-21 season. This figure was driven down by Argentina, whose corn production forecast has been revised down 7m mt to 40m mt. Should this figure hold, it would put Argentina’s corn production down by 19.2% compared to the previous season and 23.1% compared to the 2020-21 season. The USDA has attributed this decline to the drought Argentina is currently facing, stating that heat and dryness are impacting yield prospects for late planted corn.
The global soybean production forecast has also been revised down further, down 2.06% from February’s forecast to 375.15m mt. Despite the revision, this figure does sit 4.75% higher than production achieved last season and 1.81% higher than production figures for the 2020-21 season. Unsurprisingly, Argentina was the major driver here too, with forecasts revised down 8m mt, or 19.5%, to 33 million mt.