New Zealand’s agricultural and horticultural industries have huge potential to sustainably feed more people in the world, ANZ agricultural economist Susan Kilsby says.
A global population forecast to approach 10 billion people by 2050 is going to need 50%-60% more food than is currently produced.
Kilsby is the New Zealand contributor to a comprehensive insight report on food sustainability by ANZ bank for its clients here, in Australia and around the world.
“Agriculture currently uses 40% of land and 70% of freshwater, and is responsible for 30% of global carbon emissions, so it is necessary to transform the sector to make it sustainable,” Kilsby said.
“Just increasing food production is not a sustainable solution.
“For food production to be sustainable other aspects need to be addressed, such as reducing food wastage via better supply-chain management, changing our dietary mix, and adopting technology to drive efficiencies throughout the food production supply chain.”
Surveys show that sustainability of food production is a priority with more and more consumers in the developed world, and NZ needs to get recognition for what are already good practices.
Rising incomes and changes in dietary preferences towards proteins and fruits will put further pressure on food producers, the ANZ report says.
Expansion in food production over the past three decades to sustain the present population was achieved by expanding the area of irrigated land, converting forest to agricultural land, adopting new technologies, increasing mechanisation, using genetically modified seeds and very large increases in the use of fertiliser, pesticides and herbicides.
“This has resulted in plentiful production but has come at a huge and unsustainable environmental cost to the planet.”
Agriculture contributes nearly 45% of methane emissions, 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, and about 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions, via land-use change, farm-level production and the processing of agricultural products.
Emissions are highly concentrated in methane from ruminant livestock, manure management and rice farming. Nitrous oxide emissions come primarily from fertiliser usage.
The good news is that emissions per kilogram of production and per capita of producers have been falling.
While grain and meat production grew 60%-80% over the past three decades, emissions grew by 20%.
Reducing emissions from the agriculture sector will be tough compared to other sectors, as there is a need to ensure ongoing food security, biodiversity, the viability of farming communities and meeting nutritional needs.
Therefore, a gradual transformation is required and there are some relatively easy wins, including reducing food wastage, considering what is eaten, and applying new farming techniques, including crop intensification.
Though Australia and NZ are among the most efficient users of water in agriculture – defined as the value created for each cubic metre of water used – world use and degradation of water has major challenges.
“With the global agricultural industry having reached a critical threshold limit there is a heightened need to restore natural resource usage to sustainable levels.
“This means limited land expansion, less use of water, less use of fertilisers, and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which can most easily be achieved with less livestock.”
Reducing food wastage is urgent, as the United Nations estimates that a third of all food produced is wasted.
In developing countries this tends to be early in the supply chain, perhaps through storage losses, and in our part of the world it is in household cupboards and fridges when food reaches its use-by dates and is thrown away.
Global per capita meat consumption has risen 17% in the past two decades, to 34kg in 2020.
There has also been a shift from red meats to white meats.
Despite a growing preference for vegan diets, developed countries have a much higher meat consumption than developing countries and there is a growing need to cut consumption.
“Reducing red meat consumption in favour of seafood and poultry could be one way to reduce the carbon footprint of the global agriculture sector,” the report says.
“The actual emissions profile can vary hugely from country to country and farm to farm.
“This is the type of information environmentally aware consumers will be seeking (and NZ producers should be providing).”
Technology is going to help reduce the footprint of agriculture by using less land and inputs, emitting less greenhouse gases and being more precise.
This will be done by using a combination of sensors, satellite navigation and positioning technology, and the Internet of Things.
