Food and beverage retail sales in China are expected to rebound strongly this year as the country emerges from covid pandemic restrictions, according to a new report from Rabobank.
The report said changes in Chinese consumer behaviour and an accumulation of savings could fuel economic growth, providing new opportunities, especially for beef.
Food and beverage retail sales in 2022 grew marginally due to the country’s ongoing covid restrictions.
“But positive signs of recovery are emerging and in the week-long Spring Festival (in February), retail and food service sales increased by 6.8% year on year,” Rabobank agricultural analyst Genevieve Steven said.
Chinese consumers are becoming more pragmatic, prioritising spending on products they perceive to be practical, valuable and worthy.
Higher income groups are more frequently eating beef, perceiving it as tastier and healthier than other meats.
Beef sales through new channels are increasing due to cookers using new technology, portable ovens and changing buying patterns.
While foodservice will remain a major channel, Steven said the pre-prepared dish market had achieved high double-digit growth in the past two years.
Total beef imports to China rose 15% year on year in 2022 and while demand is expected to grow, new imports will be tempered by high inventory of frozen product.
Brazilian beef exports to China were banned following the discovery of BSE in the South American country, but Steven said shipments are expected to resume this month.
New Zealand beef production declined 4% in 2022 as fewer beef cows were processed due to favourable weather conditions.
There were also fewer dairy heifers and cows processed due to strong dairy returns, along with lower numbers of dairy beef steers and heifers due to fewer calves being retained in the 2019/20 season.
Despite these lower volumes, NZ export beef earnings rose 20% with exports to China and Japan both growing 5% while volumes to the US fell 22% due to reduced demand for lean trimmings.
