Milling wheat is on the upswing as grower confidence returns.
The spring Arable Industry Marketing Initiative (AIMI) report shows prospects for milling wheat this harvest is up 44% on last season, with 11,100ha in the ground or intending to be sown.
“That brings milling wheat hectares back very close to the 11,798ha harvested in 2021 before grower confidence was severely dented by changed buying practices from the mills and to a lesser extent poor conditions during last season’s grain-fill,” Federated Farmers arable vice-chair grains, Andrew Darling, said.
The report says both unsold and sold stored milling wheat is down on the same time last year and that about 53% has been forward sold compared to 36% in October 2021.
“It’s pleasing to see farmer confidence in milling wheat rally, especially given the industry’s ambitions for New Zealand to be more self-sufficient in this crop in the future.
“But there’s a warning there too: milling wheat prices will need to remain competitive against returns from feed wheat and contract signals given early enough at planting time,” Darling said.
The estimated tonnage of unsold malted barley grain was 6,500t, up on the same time last year, while the tonnage of sold grain still stored on farm was 1,800t, much lower than the 17,600t at the same time in 2021.
The bulk of unsold malted barley grain will likely be sold as feed but as noted by the AIMI working group, demand is still there.
Heading into summer and the beer-drinking season means it’s a good time to sell, though the working group acknowledged this may not last as families in New Zealand tighten their belts with the rising cost of living, Darling said.
The report found total cereal grain production of wheat, barley and oats for the 2021-22 season was an estimated 767,000t, down 1% on the previous year.
Maize grain production added another 195,000t to that total.
Unsold stocks of cereal grain across all six feed and other crops reduced 63% between July 1 and October 10 2022, and when compared to the same time last year are estimated to be 5% lower.
The total area sown or intended to be sown in cereals is looking to be 99,700ha, which is 5%, or 4,900ha up on last season.
At the time of the AIMI survey in October, about 87% of this total had been sown, with a wet and cold winter and spring having caused delays.
“After a wet planting things had dried significantly but rainfall across most of the country last weekend has set us up for a good harvest if these conditions continue,” Darling said.
